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The growth rate of retail sales in the apparel industry has plummeted. Industry concentration will accelerate
In 2011-2016, China's garment production achieved a “five consecutive rises” from 25.42 billion to 31.452 billion, with an average annual compound growth rate of 4.4%. This also shows that in the era of traditional retail prevalence, the rapid growth of the apparel industry is There is a great possibility. Entering 2017, the e-commerce model broke out and “new retail” was proposed and included in the national policy. Industrial transformation is inevitable. However, the apparel industry did not realize a major change in the industrial model in 2017. According to forward-looking industry research. According to the data released by the Institute on the forecast and analysis of production and sales demand and development prospects of China's garment industry, the output of the apparel industry in 2017 reached 28.78 billion pieces, the first decline in 6 years, with a drop of 8.5%. Clothing industry development trend (1) High channel costs and chasing traffic. In the offline aspect, the cost of shopping centers that can bring the best passenger flow is high. In 2012-2017, the retail sales of specialty store clothing stores increased, department store channels decreased, and large brands with traffic effects will further occupy shopping at lower cost. The quality of the center and other quality channels is better. On the online side, the proportion of online channels continues to increase in 2012-2017. The black hole effect on the line is obvious (high-quality brands are more likely to perform relatively well), and high-quality brands are expected to attract more benefits from large platforms. mutual benefit. (2) In the industry adjustment stage of 2011-2016, leading enterprises gradually established barriers. The technical barriers of clothing itself are relatively low. Before 2011, the industry was in the extensive development stage of “staking the road” through the channel, and then entered the adjustment period of 6-7 years. At this stage, some leading enterprises invested in the supply chain and strengthened brand management. Establishing a solid brand and efficiency barrier will give it a more obvious first-mover advantage during the industry recovery period. (3) The cost of raw materials is high, and SMEs will clear. Polyester and cotton are one of the most important costs in the apparel industry. China's polyester price index has continued to grow since 2016. China's 328 cotton price index has rebounded since 2016Q2. At the same time, due to the continuous decline of national cotton storage stocks, the global inventory consumption ratio has dropped significantly since 2014/2015, and it is still possible to continue to increase prices for a long time. Within the interval, the increase in the prices of major raw materials will further drive the price of products such as grey cloths to promote industry concentration.